India strongly advocated for a higher sovereign rating from Moody’s, while also expressing doubts about the criteria used by the US-based agency to assign ratings, according to sources. In preparation for Moody’s annual review of India’s sovereign rating, representatives from Moody’s Investors Service met with Indian government officials. During the meeting, the officials emphasized the ongoing reforms and strong fundamentals of India’s economy.
A higher rating from Moody’s would indicate that India carries less risk, resulting in lower interest rates on loans. “Moody’s acknowledged the positive aspects of the Indian economy. We are hopeful for a rating upgrade,” stated an official after the meeting.
Currently, Moody’s has assigned a ‘Baa3’ sovereign credit rating to India, with a stable outlook. ‘Baa3’ is the lowest investment grade rating.
In addition to highlighting India’s ongoing economic reforms, the government officials also raised questions regarding Moody’s rating criteria. Representatives from various economic ministries and Niti Aayog were present at the meeting.
India has long been critical of the methodology employed by international agencies when assigning credit ratings and has urged them to be more transparent and less subjective. The country has advocated for changes in the sovereign credit ratings methodology, emphasizing that it should reflect the ability and willingness of economies to fulfill their debt obligations.
During the meeting, Moody’s representatives discussed the government’s plans for disinvestment, and the officials emphasized that disinvestment should be viewed as a reform-oriented exercise rather than solely a revenue-generation effort.
In June 2020, Moody’s downgraded India’s rating from ‘Baa2’ to ‘Baa3’ with a negative outlook, citing a lack of significant reform progress and slow growth. However, in October 2021, the outlook on the rating was revised to stable.
Over the past two years, the government has largely achieved its fiscal targets. The fiscal deficit, which measures the difference between government expenditure and revenue, decreased to 6.4% of GDP in the 2022-23 fiscal year, compared to 6.7% of GDP in the previous fiscal year (2021-22). The projected deficit for the current fiscal year is 5.9% of GDP.
As per the fiscal consolidation roadmap, the government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26.
Last month, two other global rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, maintained India’s rating at ‘BBB-‘ with a stable outlook.
All three major global rating agencies—Fitch, S&P, and Moody’s—currently assign India the lowest investment grade rating, with a stable outlook. These ratings serve as an important indicator of the country’s creditworthiness and affect borrowing costs.